Stage 1
Gustav Larsson (Credit: Getty Images) & Bradley Wiggins (Credit: BBC)
Weather is so often a deciding factor in bicycle races; wind, rain, or shine, professional bike riders are always affected by the conditions and their teams will always have an eye on the weather forecast.
So, as the rain started to come down mid-way through Stage 1 of Paris-Nice (9.4km time-trial), the favourites, all scheduled to start towards the end, must have written off their chances of coming close to the 11:19 set by Gustav Larsson (Vaconsolieil-DCM). After all, Larsson is no TT slouch (2nd in both the Olympics and World TT Championships), and his time, whilst not perfect, was strong.
Obviously Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky), a big favourite for the overall race, had other ideas. Whilst the Brit didn't quite manage to beat Larsson's time (arriving 1 second behind the Sweed), this is a huge result for him, especially considering his 24 second gap over Tony Martin, the TT 2011 TT World Champion and winner of Paris-Nice in 2011.
Levi Leipheimer (Omega-Pharma Quick-Step - OPQS) came in third, which, although a good result for the American, will put him in a difficult position as OPQS will need work out whether it's him or Tony Martin (last year's winner) they support. After that, it's a bit of a list of casualties; Alejandro Valverde, Andy & Frank Schleck and Andreas Kloden have all lost time to Wiggins, and will need to do some serious attacking to get it back.
Perfectly poised...
Stage 2
Tom Boonen (Credit: Washington Post)
I don't hate much, but I do hate the wind. Even today I was out on my bike and as I turned out of the shelter of the woods, I was exposed and battered. So I can't imagine what it's like for riders on a stage like today's stage, which saw the exposed riders battered by a headwind to start, and strong crosswinds to finish.
Like many others, I expected the stage (185km of flatness from Mantes-La-Jolie to Orleans) to follow the traditional flat stage format; a lengthly break, hard work by the peloton to reel them in, and a bunch sprint to finish, with all the main contenders safely carried over the line.
After a fairly mundane (but painful) start to the stage, the fun and games started when the crosswinds hit and around 30 riders got free from the peloton. However, unlike a normal break, this group contained quite a few of the main contenders (including Wiggins, Leipheimer, Chavanel...), and left behind some others (including Larsson and Martin).
The conditions threatened (storm clouds seemed to be constantly chasing the peloton) and the cold was obviously getting to the riders, who were decked out with long sleeves and trousers, but there were no further distractions, and the gap between the groups just grew.
Bradley Wiggins, not content with the possibility of gaining the overall lead also lept out of the group to win the intermediate sprint, but the real action was waiting at the finish line, as whilst the leading pack were depleated, there were a few sprinters likely to battle for the line. It was Tom Boonen (OPQS) who won out though, pipping Jose Rojas to the post.
However, whilst Boonen will be happy, Paris-Nice overall is not a race for sprinters, and you have to say that the real story today was Bradley Wiggins, who now has a 6 second lead over Levi Leipheimer, and who has seen the weather really disrupt more of his challengers.
Stage 3
Valverde Wins (Credit: AFP)
I'll start with the finish...
As I glugged my coffee and took in stage three's denouement on Twitter (best I could do having returned to work... sigh), I couldn't find anyone happy with Alejandro Valverde's win today.
I mean, it wasn't like it was unexpected... Valverde is one of only a few cyclists who effectively combines sprinting and climbing, and the steep finish to today's 194km stage played right into his hands (as it did in the Tour Down Under on Old Willunga Hill)
So what was it... two things from what I can tell:
- Valverde cheated, he was banned, but he still cheated and in an emerging culture of not cheating, it'sa hard pill to swallow.
- Simon Gerrans almost beat him with an epic ride to the line, riding past 20 others, only to lose out in a photo finish. It would have been nice for Gerrans, and his newly formed, Australian, GreenEDGE team to win, especially in that manner.
But Valverde it was, and the 10 bonus seconds he got for winning the stage has put him back in the mix, just 20 seconds behind overall leader Wiggins, who's main contribution today was certainly not one of colour cordination...
Wiggins, too many colours (Credit: Reuters)
Before all the hilly-sprinty (c) action, the stage was marked by a 3 man breakaway; Morkov (Saxo-Bank), Engoulvent (Saur-Sojasun) and Curvers (1t4i), who built up a lead of almost 5 minutes. However, with teams like Sky & Movistar looking to control the race for their riders, the Musketeers were doomed.
Bradley Wiggins retains the lead and Levi Leipheimer remains at 6 seconds from the Brit. It's Wiggins for me...
Stage 4
Meersman Celebrates
So, stage 4 has been and gone, and the Paris-Nice is about half-way to the sun.
If this were any other sport, it is about now that I would expect my fellow Brits to bow out.. 'thank you, but no thankyou. We've enjoyed the experience, but it looks a little too much like one of us may win...'
But this is cycling, and with the help of Dave Brailsford's increasingly epic Team Sky, I'm beginning to feel like Bradley Wiggins could win this race.
But, before I get over-excited, let's have a look at today's stage; a bumpy 178km from Brive-la-Gaillarde to Rodez.
Although hilly, the stage was always likely to come down to the final kilometres, and the job for Wiggins, Leipheimer and all the other GC contenders was to stay near the front and out of trouble. Easier said than done when the road in is littered with street furniture. Whilst the afforementioned did manage to escape, Tour Down Under winner Simon Gerrans wasn't so lucky, colliding with another rider after he clipped a traffic island.
At 2km to go, Andreas Kloden (last years runner up) shot off the front of the peloton. Although not in contention overall, the German clearly fancied is chances at more Paris-Nice success, and as the group passed under the Flamme Rouge (1km to go), he was still in front. It was not to be though, and he was swallowed up, leaving the race to a sprint finish.
It was the 26 year old Belgian, Gianni Meersman (Lotto-Beliso) who won it on the line, continuing his good form from the Tour of Algarve, where he he won the first stage.
However, putting stage wins and spectacular crashes to one side, the day again belongs to Bradley Wiggins who kept out of trouble and even managed to finish in the top 10, protecting his lead. However, tomorrow's is Bradley's real test, maintain his lead over the hilliest of the hills and we'll be looking at the first British winner of Paris-Nice since Tom Simpson.
Stage 5
Westra Wins (Credit: Getty)
Stage 4 at Paris-Nice belongs to Richie Porte. He didn't win, or breakaway, or fall rear first into barbed wire. However, he was clearly the guy who shaped today's stage.
Today's stage was always going to be tough with the 1759km between Onet-le-Chateau and Mende taking in 3 Category 1 climbs, the last of which was a brutal 3km to the finish line.
The prior to the final climb the highlight of the stage was a four man breakaway. Whilst it gained some decent ground, but you felt the break was more for the sponsors than a stage win, and Frederik Veuchelen (Vacansoleil-DCM), the final escapee was eventually caught at the bottom of the final climb.
Enter Porte, signed this year by Team Sky, he took on the role of assistant to team mate and Yellow Jersey holder, Bradley Wiggins. It was clear his job was to protect Wiggins right up to the end & stop anyone else attacking. However, he rode at such a brutal and consistent pace that in doing so he dropped most of the peloton, including Sylvian Chavanel who was placed 4th prior to the start of the race and a real contender for the overall win.
It must have been horrible, and what's incredible (well, for anyone who isn't familiar with pro-cycling) is he did it all for Team Sky and Wiggins. No stage win, no jersey, just for the team. Awesome.
So, with around 1.5km to go, Porte drifed off down the timesheets, and left Wiggins to attack. Attack he did, however, it was probably a little early, and as Bradley slowed, Lieuwe Westra (Vacansoleil-DCM) took to the front and finished it off (albeit with a little showboating), beating Valverde and Wiggins to the line by 6 seconds.
Those 6 seconds, along with 10 bonus seconds for winning the stage have now put Westra in 2nd place overall. Not too shabby, but the Yellow Jersey is still with Wiggins, and with a team like Sky to protect him over the next 2 days and his epic form in the time-trial, I'd say he's looking a good bet.
Stage 6
Sanchez beats Voigt (Credit: EPA)
One of my cycling highlights of 2011 was sitting in a French cafe watching the Alpe D'Huez stage of the Tour de France. Having crashed the day before, I should have been sulky, however, I was, and the reason was the chap sitting next to us; a huge, cigar smoking Spanish man and his (surely long suffering) wife.
Alfonso (I didn't actually catch his name) wasted no time in trying to convince us that Alberto Contador was going to win the Tour (he was well out of the race by then) and would stand and shout 'Samu, Samu' every time King of the Mountains contender Sammy Sanchez came into shot. His wife just smiled at us sympathetically, a smile she had clearly practiced over the years.
Anyway, it was a fantastic expereince, and I thought of Alfonso (and anyone near him) today as Sammy's namesake and fellow Spaniard, Luis Leon Sanchez (Rabobank) won the stage in a two way battle with the hugely popular Jens Voigt (RadioShak-Nissan). In fact, if my Twitter feed was anything to go by, Alfonso was probably a lone voice today too - everyone was willing Voigt, the 40 (!) year old German to cross the line first, but he just couldn't do it, leaving 2009 Paris-Nice winner Sanchez to take his first win of the season.
The stage itself (179km from Suze-la-Rousse to Sisteron) was a little less hilly than Stage 5, and didn't finish with a climb, meaning no-one was really sure how it would end.
This uncertainty made for a tense opening, as a largish group of 26 riders (unconventionally including big names such as Wiggins and Tony Martin), looked to break away. However, the big group didn't stay together for long, and the break eventually settled to 7 riders, which was whittled down further until, with about 10km to go, it was just Voigt and Sanchez.
You me and Alfonso know the rest.
Whilst both will be happy to stay away from the peloton (not by much in the end), they weren't placed highly enough in the standings at the beginning of the day to threaten Wiggins or any of the other contenders.
So, it's status quo going into to tomorrow's stage, and if anyone's going to threaten Wiggins they'll probably have to attack on the Col de Vence and it'll be well worth a watch, whatever dodgy Flemmish internet feed you using.
Stage 7
De Gendt Wins (Credit: Getty)
Stage 7, the penultimate of this year's Paris-Nice, was a tale of two riders. For Thomas De Gendt, things couldn't have gone better, and for Levi Leipheimer, it's difficult to imagine a more disasterous stage.
It's not often that a rider steals the show like De Gendt did today. Don't get me wrong, it's happened but unless you get some help, things need to be just right. So they were for De Gendt, who, alongside Estonian Reim Taaramae (Confidis), rode off the front of the peloton at about 50km into the 219km stage.
Neither rider being a serious contender for the Yellow Jersey, the group just let them go and they gained an advantage of over 10 minutes, an advantage which De Gendt held all the way to the finish at Nice, having dropped Taaramae on the Col de Vence (a tough category 1 climb, and the last of the tour).
It would be fair to say that Levi Leipheimer didn't have such a good day at the office. At the start of the day the American was in 3rd place overall, and only 10 seconds off Bradley Wiggins. This was a manageable gap, but ultimately one which Leipheimer managed to erode, spectacularly, by crashing, not once, but three times.
The first two crashes were fairly innocuous, but left Leipheimer and his team with a lot of chasing to catch up with the peloton. It was their enthusiasm in doing so, combined with an unfortunately placed police motorcycle which capped off his nightmare day. One of Leipheimer's teamates went into the obstruction, and Leipheimer went into his teamate. A disaster, and one which left them 7 minutes behind Wiggins.
So, as the peloton rumbled in, around 10 minutes after De Gendt, only one minor threat remained for Bradley Wiggins and Team Sky, who had to make sure that Westra didn't cross the line in third place, giving him 4 crucial bonus seconds. Wiggins wasn't to worry though, Westra, crossed the line safely in the bowels of the peloton, leaving him 6 seconds behind the Brit. Both are excellent in the time-trial, which means that tomorrow is likely to be close, and a fantastic finale.
Stage 8
Bradley Wiggins and Podium Girls (Credit: Getty)
To answer your question; I don't know, I just don't know. I mean, this guy doesn't know for sure, and he seems to know everything about bike racing.
Today's stage was the final of Paris-Nice 2012 and whilst only 9.6km in length, it was a real sting in the tail of the race. I mean, a time-trial is hard enough, but a time-trial that just goes up, with sections of over 7% isn't pleasant.
The day started with Bradley Wiggins in the lead, but only by 6 seconds, from noted time-trialer Lieuwe Westre (Vacansoleil-DCM). All others were pretty much out of it; Valverde was close in terms of time but unlikely to challenge Wiggins' time-trial ability, and all other time-trialers, like Ton Martin were way down the General Classification.
So, Wiggins and Westre it was, and after both riders had crossed the intermediate part of the course, Wiggins was 2 seconds slower than Westre, reducing his overall lead to 4 seconds. So when Westre just improved over the second part of the course, and smashed the previous best time by 30 seconds, Wiggins must have been nervous.
However, there's usually an advantage going last, and Wiggins, knowing Westre had set a cracking time, raced up the final part of the course to gain 4 seconds back and win the stage by 2 seconds, and Paris-Nice by 8 seconds.
So, back to your question. Will Bradley Wiggins win the Tour de France? I don't know, but after today I'm pretty sure he can.